2006-04-07 13:40:37

Influence of a Star flare on the Sun-Earth environment and its possible relationship with snowfall

Our planet is a part of our solar system, our galaxy and the universe. All members of these systems are interactive, interdependent and interrelated. The solar radiation that reaches the earth is dissipated in one of the following ways: reflection, absorption, or scattering. Part of the solar radiation reaching the earth is absorbed by the earth and part of it is returned back. Radiation returning from the earth is absorbed or scattered by atmosphere (Donn, 1965). The sun is the chief driving force for terrestrial climate, the climatic variation in different parts of the earth determined primarily by their respective positions to the sun rays. Sunspots and earth-directed coronal mass ejections from sun also seem to influence the global climate. Changes in glacial deposition have been found to be in phase with changes in the orbital path of earth. More elusive has been a definite answer to the question of whether or not variations in the sun's plasma emissions are capable of influencing the weather and climate at the earth's surface. Global warming in this century has corresponded with lowered cosmic ray intensities. Cosmic rays help the formation of dense clouds in the lower atmosphere while having a small negative effect on cloud cover in the upper atmosphere. The low clouds retain more surface energy, keeping the surrounding air hot, while the high clouds reflect more sunlight into space keeping the upper atmosphere cooler (Yu, 2004). NASA scientists have first attempted to correlate the Sun with the climate by modeling the sensitivity of the atmosphere and climate to different forcings (Lean and Rind, 1996). The solar magnetic field is the major parameter needed to reconstruct the secular variation of the cosmic ray flux impinging on the terrestrial atmosphere, since a stronger solar magnetic field more efficiently shields the earth from cosmic rays. Further, it has been stated that cosmic rays affect the total cloud cover of the earth and thus provide a driver for the terrestrial climate, although the physical mechanism underlying the link is still poorly understood. This points to the need for a more rigorous and through study of the link between sun and climate change (Solanki et.al., 2000). In the later part of the 19th century, there were many claims of newfound connections between sunspots and climate. It began with the announcement by the amateur astronomer Heinrich Schwabe, in 1843, that sunspots come and go in an apparently regular eleven-year cycle. What followed was a flood of reported correlations, not only with local and regional weather but with crop yields, human health, and economic trends. These purported connections frequently broke down under closer statistical scrutiny and lacked the buttress of physical explanations and were in time forgotten or abandoned. The Chandra X-ray Observatory has seen X-ray outbursts from a young star in McNeil's nebula, which have helped to show that its magnetic field is interacting with an orbiting disk of gas, causing it to flare up intermittently (Kastner et.al., 2004). An attempt has been made in this paper to highlight the influence of star flares on the Sun-earth environment. Decreases in magnetic values and electron flux are also noticed after the earth directed starstorm (NASA News, 2004; Fig. 1). These geophysical parameters, e.g. the E-flux, seem to have some relationship with the snowfall in higher latitudes and higher altitudes of lower latitudes on the 25th of December, 2004. Rainfall and development of fog, and smog on lower altitudes of lower latitude have also been recorded on the same day.

 
 Figure.1. Sudden fall of Electron Flux 36-40 hours before snowfall (SOHO satellite data). Courtesy SOHO/NASA to the author.


Hypothesis

Although the Sun is known to be a variable star, its total output of radiation is often assumed to be very stable and hence its variations have negligible possible impact on climate. Testimony to this assumption is the term that has been employed for more than a century to describe the radiation in all wavelengths received from the Sun, the so-called solar constant, whose value at the mean Sun-Earth distance is a little over 1.37 kW / m per unit of surface. But in truth, the solar constant varies (Lassen and Friis, 1995). Sunspots and other forms of solar activity are produced by magnetic fields and their changes affect the radiation emitted by Sun, including its distribution among shorter and longer wavelengths. The Earth has a magnetic field with north and south poles. The magnetic field of the Earth is enclosed in a region surrounding the Earth called the magnetosphere. As the Earth rotates, its hot core generates strong electric currents, which produce the magnetic field. This field reaches 36,000 miles into space. The magnetosphere prevents most of the particles from the sun, carried in solar wind, from impacting the Earth. A star storm distorts the shape of the magnetosphere by compressing it at the front and causing a long tail to form on the side away from the Sun. This long tail is called the magnetotail. The Star storm and Sun storm can enter through magnetic shield and influence the atmosphere.

Discussion

After more than a century of controversy, solar variability effects on the climate of the Earth remains a very active research field. Present work attempts to establish a new hypothesis on Star-Sun-Earth atmospheric interactions and opens a new horizon for more accurate weather prediction research. Bjorck and colleagues (Bjork et al., 2001) proposed that a weakening of solar activity might have caused a mini chill. It coincided, they find, with a large increase in the amount of beryllium-10 trapped in Greenland ice, which is an evidence of a solar flicker. This radioactive form of beryllium is produced when cosmic rays from space collide with nitrogen and oxygen atoms in the atmosphere. The magnetic field around the Earth shields the planet from cosmic rays. This field is stronger when the sun is more active i.e., emitting more ultraviolet radiation and displaying more sunspots, hence fewer cosmic rays can penetrate (Bjorck, et al., 2001). Star-Sun influence on the Earth.s atmosphere For hailstorm, snowstorm or heavy cloud formation, it is essential that the Earth.s atmosphere should contain enough micron-sized aerosol particles to act as cloud condensation nuclei. Data on a star storm show that hailstorms have developed in various parts of the globe after the star storm (NASA, 2004). Since early 1992, Ulysses has been monitoring the stream of stardust flowing through our Solar System. The stardust is embedded in the local galactic cloud through which the Sun is moving at a relative speed of 26 kilometers per second. As a result of this relative motion, a single dust grain takes twenty years to traverse the Solar System. Observations by the DUST experiment onboard Ulysses have shown that the stream of stardust is highly affected by the Sun.s magnetic field. In most of the 1990s, this field, which was drawn out deep into space by the out-flowing solar wind, kept most of the stardust out. The most recent data, collected up to the end of 2002, show that this magnetic shield has lost its protective power during the recent solar maximum. It has been reported that about three times more stardust is now able to enter the Solar System (Max Plank News release, 1999). The reason for the weakening of the Sun.s magnetic shield is the increasing solar activity, which leads to a highly disordered field configuration. In the mid-1990s, during the last solar minimum, the Suns magnetic field resembled a dipole field with well-defined magnetic poles (North positive, South negative), very much like the Earth. Unlike Earth, however, the Sun reverses its magnetic polarity every 11 years. The reversal always occurs during solar maximum. That.s when the magnetic field is highly disordered, allowing more interstellar dust to enter the Solar System. It is of interest to note that in the reversed configuration after the recent solar maximum (North negative, South positive), the interstellar dust is even channeled more efficiently towards the inner Solar System. It is expected that more interstellar dust will occur from 2005 onwards, but it had already appeared in December 2004. The sun has entered the zodiac's 13th house: An interstellar wind hit our planet. It's a helium-rich breeze from the stars, flowing into the solar system from the direction of Ophiuchus (NASA 2004). The Sun's gravity focuses the material into a cone and Earth passes through it during the first weeks of December. Earth was inside the cone during 25th December, 2004. Grains of stardust are very small, about one hundredth the diameter of a human hair, move very fast, and produce large numbers of fragments when they impact asteroids or comets. It is, therefore, conceivable that an increase in the amount of interstellar dust in the Solar System will create more cosmic dust by collisions with asteroids and comets. We know from measurements by high-flying aircraft that around 40,000 tn of interplanetary dust enters the Earth.s atmosphere each year. It is possible that the increase of stardust in the Solar System will influence the amount of extraterrestrial material that rains down to Earth (ESA Science News, 2003). How the Earth's surface temperature adjusts to a given change in solar radiation, depends on the processes by which the climate system responds to variations in the energy it receives. Some of these factors amplify the effects of changes that are imposed; others reduce them. Lumped together, they make up what is called the sensitivity of the climate system, which indicates the number of degrees by which the mean-surface temperature will be raised or lowered in response to a given change, up or down, in solar and/or extra terrestrial radiation or any other climate driver. To understand the impacts of star-solar variations on climate we need to know how much the star-solar inputs vary, and how the climate system responds to these changes. The sensitivity of climate to solar radiation changes, as defined earlier, is not well known. A conservative estimate is that a 0.1 % change in solar total radiation will bring about a temperature response of 0.06 to 0.2 C, providing that change persists long enough for the climate system to adjust. This could take 10 to 100 years. Changes in the visible and infrared part of the solar spectrum alter the surface temperature by simple heating; other parts of the spectrum can also affect climate, although their paths of influence are less direct. We know, for example, that the enhanced UV radiation that pours outward from the Sun at times of high solar activity increases the amount of ozone in the stratosphere through increased dissociation of molecular oxygen. At times of minima in the eleven-year cycle of the Sun, ozone is decreased. It has been also known that ozone contributes to climatic change (Lean and Rind, 1996). Solar radiation received at the Earth can vary by means that are unrelated to any changes on the Sun itself. The best studied of these are very long-term changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, which alter the distribution of sunlight both geographically and seasonally. They are now believed to trigger the coming and going of the major Ice Ages. As such, they may provide a powerful demonstration of the impacts of changes in solar radiation on the climate system. The changes involved arise from gradual shifts in the shape and orientation of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, and in the present 23.5 deg tilt of the Earth's axis of rotation. These cyclic changes, brought about by the changing gravitational pull of the other planets and the Moon, introduce periods of about 19, 23, 41, and 100 thousand years in the distribution of sunlight over the globe. The total annual dosage, averaged over the entire surface, varies by up to 0.1 percent, while more specific, seasonal changes at any place can reach a few percent. Such changes are apparently sufficient to trigger major changes in climate, hence implying that the Earth's climate system may be more sensitive to small solar irradiance perturbations than one might think. Climate simulations are as yet unable to account for the unexpectedly prominent 100 kyear periodicity in the record of past climate. This long period is associated with oscillations in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. Changes in the Sun-Earth distance directly affect the amount of solar radiation incident on the Earth in different parts of the year. Changes in the activity of the Sun itself could exert a similar effect. Such studies of solar perturbations can serve the broader cause as diagnostic probes of the atmosphere and climate system. Ambiguities regarding projected greenhouse warming call in much the same way for clearer information regarding the role of the Sun as a possibly important contributor to the current warming trend. Climate simulations using only greenhouse gas changes predict a warming that exceeds 0.5C as documented in the instrumental record of the past 140 years. The reason behind the difference between the observed and the predicted values may be because not all natural and anthropogenic forcings are considered in the models. If variations in the output of the Sun are indeed limited to the tenth of a percent that is recorded in direct measurements, future solar changes will likely have but a small effect on the surface warming of a few degrees that is expected to result from doubled concentrations of greenhouse gases. If we consider Sun-Earth-climate connections observed in the past, we may think that star flares could potentially alter the anticipated effects of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on the surface temperature of the Earth. In January 2002, Unicorn, a moderately dim star in the Monoceros constellation, the Unicorn, suddenly became 600 000 times more luminous than our Sun. This made it temporarily the brightest star in the Milky Way. The light from this eruption created a unique phenomenon known as a 'light echo' when it reflected off dust shells around the star. This phenomenon was followed by hailstorm in northern hemisphere. Further, in the month of December, 2004, Unicorn repeated a similar phenomenon. It may be noted that the sudden snowfall on the northern hemisphere continents on the 25th of December, 2004 has sufficient bearing on Star-Sun-Earth.s atmosphere interaction.

Conclusion

Sun-Earth environment Kp (planetary indices), proton flux and electron flux exhibit changes. Sudden changes in these parameters may influence the environment of the earth abruptly. If an E-flux rise is responsible for global warming, then an E-flux lowering may lead to snowfall. On the 22nd of December 2004, a sudden fall in the electron flux was recorded by the SOHO satellite (Fig. 1). Widespread snowfall was recorded in United Kingdom on the 25th of December 2005 (Aberdeen, London, Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff, Belfast, Crosby, Woodford .Source: Meteorological Office, U.K. and BBC Weather News.). A subsequent rise of the E-flux normalised the condition. The starflare might have influenced the E-flux and thus cased snowfall on 25th December 2004. Similar observations were noticed in other parts of the world also. Widespread snowfall was recorded in other parts of the world on the 25th of December 2005 and further on the 23rd of February 2005. Houghton, MI, Mauna Loa at Hawaii, Boston and New York in the U.S.A., received very high snowfall; Tehran in Iran received also snowfall; Queensland in Australia experienced a cyclone with cold wave; Jammu and Kashmir, Shimla, India experienced a cold wave and received snowfall (Source: Meteorological Office, U.K., BBC Weather News, UK, and NOAA, USA). These weather conditions were anomalous and were accompanied by low Kp indices and low E-flux conditions. We suggest that regular monitoring of Star flares and their influence on the Sun-Earth environment may lead to more accurate weather prediction.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by NASA-ESA SOHO EIT project no.264. Funding for this work was provided by Commonwealth Commission (Grant No.INCF-2004-87). I am thankful to Richard Worden, University of Liverpool, for his co-operation and support in preparation of this paper.

References

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Saumitra Mukherjee
Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, The University of Liverpool,
4 Brownlow Street, L693GP, Liverpool, U.K.
and School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University,
New Delhi-110067, India
dr.saumitramukherjee@usa.net

[comment:]
The Editor would like to note that although this paper presents very preliminary and limited observations, it was published following our policy of providing an open forum for new ideas.